Welcome to The Market Runup! Every week, we’re diving into what happened in the crypto market onchain and off-chain, as well macro developments — so you can get smarter on your Mondays and prepare for the week ahead.

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Evan Gold, StockMKTNewz: Is the market fighting the Fed?

Last week, I sat down with Evan Gold, also known as StockMKTNewz, for a broad conversation about what's happening underneath today's markets.

Investors are facing quite contradictory indicators today. The Fed is raising interest rates while some parts of the stock market are trading at record highs — the latter of which is especially uncommon during times of high inflation, geopolitical instability and low consumer sentiment. 

We spoke about what 10-year Treasury bonds with yields of 5% means for equity valuations, whether the economy has simply become more resilient to higher interest rates, and if the AI and semiconductor space is becoming overcrowded.

Evan also spoke about an increasingly personal matter for many  investors: affordability. I recently looked at buying a home here in Texas and was shocked by how expensive the numbers still are once today's financing costs are included. Are housing, credit and company earnings finally starting to weigh in the U.S. consumer? And what happens to home prices if interest rates stay elevated.

Lastly, we discussed bitcoin's momentum, how Evan's own trading has been going, what he took away from Future Proof, the world’s largest wealth management and financial advisory event, and how someone who consumes market information all day separates market signals from noise.

The percentages and metrics are based on a 7-day timeframe, unless noted otherwise.

Perpetual Motion covers the latest in the booming perpetual futures market. This section is brought to you by Synthetix, the leading decentralized perpetual futures protocol of Ethereum Mainnet.

Investors returned to leverage aggressively following bitcoin's upward move. As BTC pushed toward $85K on Monday, September 21st,  approximately $648 million of bearish crypto positions were liquidated, and total crypto open interest rose 7.6% to roughly $156 billion.

That's a meaningful change from earlier in September, when we were watching bitcoin futures positions cool steadily. Traders are taking risk again, but this time the derivatives expansion is happening alongside roughly $2.4 billion of weekly Bitcoin ETF inflows. That makes the market structure a tad bit healthier.

Spot vs Derivatives Flows (what to watch):

After roughly $2.4B entered U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs last week, sustained positive ETF flows would suggest institutions are continuing to buy even after BTC's move above $85K.

At the same time, watch open interest and funding rates. If open interest continues climbing from last week's elevated levels while ETF inflows slow, leverage could be taking over as the primary driver of the rally.

Cross-asset correlations (what it tells you):

Bitcoin and tech stocks moved higher together early last week as oil and Treasury yields eased. On Monday, September 21, the S&P 500 gained 1.49% for the session, while the Nasdaq jumped 2.26% to close at an all-time high. The rally coincided with easing macro pressure: the 10-year Treasury yield fell back below 5% to roughly 4.96%, while Brent crude dropped 3.4% to around $100 per barrel.

Alongside the recovery of bitcoin, ETFs, and continued acceleration of AI and tech stocks, oil’s decline towards the crucial $100 mark provided some relief from the inflation pressure that dominated markets earlier this month. 

Our assessment this week is:

Crypto: Risk is favorable, though spot demand will confirm move.

Global macro: Constructive, but still interest rate-sensitive.

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This information is for entertainment purposes only. It should not be considered financial advice, nor should it be used to make investment decisions. Cryptocurrencies are high risk and you should consult a financial professional before making any financial decisions. Make sure you do your own research.