Welcome to The Market Runup! Every week, we’re diving into what happened in the crypto market onchain and off-chain, as well macro developments — so you can get smarter on your Mondays and prepare for the week ahead.

Investors had to come to terms with a complicated economic environment last week, with chip stocks selling off, neoclouds looking like they’re falling out of favor, debt yields rising, and worsening geopolitical uncertainty. Technology and AI, though, remain central to sentiment, though monetary policy, liquidity availability and demand continue to dictate how bitcoin and other, riskier assets move.

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From Wall Street to the Blockchain: Block3’s Matthew Snider on Tokenized Stocks, Hedge Funds & the Future of Capital with Matthew Snider

Last week, I sat down with Matthew Snider, president and co-founder of Block3 Strategy Group, and former CIO of Digital Wealth Partners, to discuss the current state of the market, the emergence of tokenized equities, and what it takes to build and operate an investment fund.

Snider has spent more than a decade launching hedge funds, raising hundreds of millions in capital, and advising on digital asset strategies, so he brings a fresh perspective on how traditional finance connects with the digital asset economy.

Our conversation explored the importance of bringing tokenized stocks to U.S. markets for Wall Street, and whether blockchains can improve settlement, ownership, and access to financial markets. 

We also discussed the regulatory questions surrounding tokenized securities, particularly the difference between owning an actual share, and holding a token that simply tracks its price.

The percentages and metrics are based on a 7-day timeframe, unless noted otherwise.

Perpetual Motion covers the latest in the booming perpetual futures market. This section is brought to you by Synthetix, the leading decentralized perpetual futures protocol on Ethereum Mainnet.

Bitcoin derivatives remain an important indicator of investor positioning as the broader market responds to inflation concerns, changing interest-rate expectations, and weakness in technology stocks.

Last week, U.S. spot bitcoin ETFs saw withdrawals continue, although the pace of outflows slowed considerably compared with the previous week. Bitcoin was trading near $82,011 earlier today, as investors weighed renewed inflation concerns and rising debt yields.

Open interest, which measures the value of outstanding futures positions, is an especially important metric to keep an eye on in this environment. Elevated open interest alongside declining prices can signal that traders remain heavily positioned, potentially increasing the risk of liquidations if volatility grows.

Spot vs Derivatives Flows (what to watch):

Bitcoin futures open interest is currently at around $52.8 billion, and 24-hour futures volume is about $53.9 billion, according to CoinGlass. Funding rates have remained relatively neutral, however, suggesting limited aggressive positioning in either direction. 

This week, watch whether open interest rises alongside bitcoin's price. A sharp increase of leverage in the absence of spot demand will point towards greater liquidation risk, and stable funding and controlled leverage would support a healthier recovery.

Cross-asset correlations (what it tells you):

Last week, the S&P 500 declined 1.9% and the Nasdaq fell 4.5%, though bitcoin held up better. This divergence suggests investors are reassessing tech and related valuations without abandoning crypto. However, weakness in technology stocks could still pressure bitcoin if the appetite for riskier assets falls.

Meanwhile, the 10-year Treasury yield declined from 5.24% to about 5.09% over last week, and was hovering around those levels on Monday. Yields are still high, but any dip tends to benefit riskier assets like bitcoin by reducing the appeal of bonds. Still, declining yields is more a signal of caution than improving liquidity. 

This week, watch whether declining yields results in investors supporting both equities and crypto (though the former will more likely be dictated by their earnings results in the coming weeks), and whether bitcoin’s price continues to reflect technology stocks.

The pullback in tech stocks, continued Bitcoin ETF outflows, and growing bond yields suggest investors are becoming more defensive as they reassess valuations and take into account inflation numbers.

With that in mind, our assessment for this week is:

Crypto: Cautious. Institutional ETF withdrawals have slowed, but sustained spot demand and healthier derivatives positioning will be important for rebuilding confidence.

Global macro: Defensive and selective. Tech stocks are being influenced by financing costs, debt concerns and earnings expectations, which is driving money towards government bonds and defensive sectors. Earnings this week will give clearer indicators of how this situation may pan out.

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This information is for entertainment purposes only. It should not be considered financial advice, nor should it be used to make investment decisions. Cryptocurrencies are high risk and you should consult a financial professional before making any financial decisions. Make sure you do your own research.