Welcome to The Market Runup! Every week, we’re diving into what happened in the crypto market onchain and off-chain, as well macro developments — so you can get smarter on your Mondays and prepare for the week ahead.
The S&P 500 closed at another record high last week as inflation data reduced expectations of an immediate interest rate hike. Bitcoin, meanwhile, is trading around $63,445 and is down roughly 2.4% over the past seven days.
At the same time, some of the world's largest financial institutions are continuing to build with digital assets in mind.
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This Week on The Market Runup
Seth Ginns, co-lead of Franklin Crypto: Is the market missing what's actually happening?
Last week, I sat down with Seth Ginns, co-lead of Franklin Crypto at Franklin Templeton, to talk about one of the biggest contradictions in digital assets right now: crypto assets are struggling to appreciate even as underlying fundamentals and institutional infrastructure continue improving.
We started with a question investors are probably asking: Is crypto fundamentally undervalued, or are the current prices telling us something the industry doesn't want to hear?
Ginns discussed what macro environment actually matters for BTC, and if the traditional four-year crypto cycle still makes sense, given that ETFs and institutional capital are changing the composition of the market.
He also weighed in on whether institutional capital will eventually move beyond Bitcoin into Ethereum, Solana and individual protocols; how professional investors should actually value crypto networks; and whether digital assets finally need their own institutional valuation framework rather than borrowing models from equities.
Noteworthy Market Stats
Total crypto market cap: Approximately $2.18T, remains steady from previous week
Top 3 Assets:
Bitcoin (BTC): $1.27T at about $63,469
Ethereum (ETH): $229B at around $1,897
Tether (USDT): $182B at about $.99
Bitcoin dominance vs altcoins: Bitcoin dominance has fallen to approximately 56.9%, down from roughly 58.7% last Monday, as BTC remains under pressure, suggesting some capital is rotating to other parts of the crypto market.
Stablecoin market cap: The stablecoin market remains around $301–$302 billion, little changed from roughly $301 billion a week ago.
Bitcoin ETF net flows: This was one of the biggest reversals from last week. After U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded strong positive flows the previous week, funds saw approximately $390M in net outflows between August 10 and August 14. The reversal coincided with BTC slipping back toward $63K, representing a meaningful cooling of the institutional demand that had been supporting the market earlier in August.
The percentages and metrics are based on a 7-day timeframe, unless noted otherwise.
Perpetual Motion
Perpetual Motion covers the latest in the booming perpetual futures market. This section is brought to you by Synthetix, the leading decentralized perpetual futures protocol of Ethereum Mainnet.
Bitcoin's inability to break decisively higher despite a more supportive macro backdrop makes derivatives positioning particularly important this week. BTC futures open interest currently sits around $47.7 billion, while 24-hour futures volume is roughly $33.3 billion — compared with only about $2.0 billion in BTC spot volume. That means futures volume is currently running at nearly 17 times spot volume. Roughly $30 million in BTC futures positions were liquidated over the latest 24 hours.
What’s the takeaway? The derivatives market isn't showing a lot of new leverage building, and instead, open interest has actually declined. Keep your eye on spot demand: if Bitcoin breaks higher while open interest explodes and spot buying remains weak, the action could reverse.
The Market Runup’s Take
Spot vs Derivatives Flows (what to watch): Bitcoin’s market structure remains heavily influenced by derivatives. As of August 16, Bitcoin futures open interest was approximately $47.9 billion, a significant pool of leveraged positioning relative to current spot activity. At the same time, spot trading activity has remained unusually weak, with recent data pointing to some of the lowest Bitcoin spot volumes in years.
What we’re watching: Whether the next Bitcoin rally is accompanied by a meaningful return of spot buying. Demand for derivatives may push BTC higher, but without sustained spot demand, it’s hard to interpret that rally as a durable shift in investor conviction.
Cross-asset correlations (what it tells you): The S&P 500 ended last week around record territory, and posted another weekly gain. Softer economic data helped reduce expectations of an imminent interest rate hike, providing another tailwind for equities.
Bitcoin, meanwhile, moved in the opposite direction, falling roughly 3% over the week and trading just above $63,000 as of Sunday.
Gold also diverged. Escalating geopolitical uncertainty and inflation concerns pushed the safe-haven asset above $4,400 an ounce during the week, while Bitcoin failed to attract the same defensive flows.
What’s The Risk Appetite
Risk appetite remains constructive, but noticeably less so in crypto.
With equities trading high and investment around AI showing strong signs of progress, the prospect of cooling inflation has reduced fears of additional near-term Fed tightening.
In other words, investors are not broadly retreating from riskier assets.
That makes Bitcoin’s relative weakness more significant.
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This information is for entertainment purposes only. It should not be considered financial advice, nor should it be used to make investment decisions. Cryptocurrencies are high risk and you should consult a financial professional before making any financial decisions. Make sure you do your own research.