Welcome to The Market Runup! Every week, we’re diving into what happened in the crypto market onchain and off-chain, as well macro developments — so you can get smarter on your Mondays and prepare for the week ahead.

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Terence McMenamin: Are Digital Dollars Becoming the New Financial Infrastructure?

Last week, I sat down with Terence McMenamin of TechDollar to look beyond the price of bitcoin and into a much bigger shift happening with money itself. We start with the TechDollar thesis and why stablecoins are increasingly difficult to categorize as simply a crypto product. As digital dollars move into payments, settlement and global dollar access, the bigger question is whether we're watching an entirely new layer of financial infrastructure being built and whether banks, fintech companies and eventually consumers will even know when they're interacting with stablecoins.

We also get into some of the larger macro consequences like: Could digital dollars actually strengthen U.S. dollar dominance at a time when the world is debating de-dollarization? What happens to weaker currencies if people in emerging markets can access dollars without opening a U.S. bank account? And if stablecoins eventually become a multi-trillion-dollar market, how significant could issuers become as buyers of U.S. Treasuries? 

Lastly, we explore what happens to bank deposits as money becomes programmable, how 24/7 dollars could change liquidity and capital flight, and why millions of autonomous AI agents may ultimately create an entirely new source of demand for programmable money.

The percentages and metrics are based on a 7-day timeframe, unless noted otherwise.

Perpetual Motion covers the latest in the booming perpetual futures market. This section is brought to you by Synthetix, the leading decentralized perpetual futures protocol of Ethereum Mainnet.

Leverage continued to unwind this week. Bitcoin futures open interest is now approximately $50.9 billion, down from roughly $53.2 billion last weekend and $54.8 billion the weekend before that. That represents a decline of about $2.3 billion, or 4.3%, week over week, and roughly 7.1% over the past two weeks. Bitcoin itself is around $77.2K, down approximately 3.3% over seven days, meaning both price and outstanding futures positioning have declined together.

Derivatives are still doing considerably more volume than spot. Bitcoin futures generated approximately $19.6 billion in 24-hour volume versus about $1.7 billion in tracked spot volume, or roughly 11.5 times as much activity. But there's another development worth watching beyond Bitcoin: speculative leverage has increasingly migrated into altcoins. Earlier this month, aggregate altcoin perpetual open interest surpassed Bitcoin perpetual open interest for the first time since December 2024, with roughly $40 billion positioned across altcoins versus $23.9 billion in BTC perpetuals at the time.

Spot vs Derivatives Flows (what to watch): Spot demand weakened sharply this week. U.S. Bitcoin ETFs recorded roughly $449.5M in net outflows across September 8–10, compared with $986.7M in inflows the previous week — a $1.44B reversal. At the same time, Bitcoin futures open interest fell from roughly $53.2B to $50.9B, down 4.3%, while 24-hour futures volume of $19.8B remained more than 11x tracked spot volume.

The key signal next week is whether ETF flows turn positive before leverage rebuilds. If OI rises quickly while spot demand stays weak, the next move becomes much more dependent on derivatives.

Cross-asset correlations (what it tells you): Bitcoin fell roughly 3.3% this week, compared with declines of 0.8% for the S&P 500 and 0.7% for the Nasdaq, while Brent crude surged roughly 9% and the 10-year Treasury yield briefly approached 5%.

That divergence shows investors were repricing inflation and interest-rate risk across markets. Bitcoin continues to behave like a higher-beta, liquidity-sensitive asset, making oil, Treasury yields and Fed expectations just as important to watch as crypto-specific indicators.

Risk appetite deteriorated this week. Bitcoin fell back toward $77K, ETF flows turned negative, U.S. equities struggled for much of the week, and higher oil prices pushed inflation and interest-rate concerns back to the front of the market.

The encouraging part is that crypto hasn't experienced a wholesale liquidity exit. Stablecoin supply remains around $305B, Bitcoin leverage has actually declined, and BTC is still well above the lows it traded at earlier this summer. The market looks more cautious rather than outright risk-off.

Our assessment this week is:

Crypto: Neutral to cautiously constructive, but spot demand needs to return.

Global macro: Fragile, with inflation, oil and rising yields creating a significantly tougher backdrop.

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This information is for entertainment purposes only. It should not be considered financial advice, nor should it be used to make investment decisions. Cryptocurrencies are high risk and you should consult a financial professional before making any financial decisions. Make sure you do your own research.