Welcome to The Market Runup! Every week, we’re diving into what happened in the crypto market onchain and off-chain, as well macro developments — so you can get smarter on your Mondays and prepare for the week ahead.

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Last week, I sat down with Jeff Weniger, chief investment strategist at Corgi Funds, to talk about a space that is undergoing a major structural transformation: ETFs.

Weniger spent more than two decades working in asset management, so it’s curious why he joined Corgi, which is trying to rethink the way investment products are created and distributed. 

We discussed which parts of the traditional ETF model may be outdated, why bringing products to market faster isn't enough to create an advantage, and where Corgi believes its real competitive edge lies.

We also talked about the larger shift happening in investing: ETFs were originally dominated by broad passive exposure, but investors can now access increasingly specific themes, ranging from AI and semiconductors to robotics, power infrastructure and cybersecurity. Are we moving from an era of simply "buying the market" toward one where investors can build precise exposure to the parts of the economy they believe will win?

Perpetual Motion covers the latest in the booming perpetual futures market. This section is brought to you by Synthetix, the leading decentralized perpetual futures protocol of Ethereum Mainnet.

Derivatives remain active, but last week's price movements showed just how quickly positioning can be reset by macro and regulatory catalysts. Bitcoin fell from roughly $77.8K last Sunday to an intraday low of around $74.9K following the failed CLARITY vote, before recovering toward $80K later in the week.

The recovery wasn't simply a one-way leverage story, though. ETF flows flipping positive towards the end of the week indicates spot trends were relatively healthy.

This week, we’re watching whether futures open interest begins accelerating again alongside sustained ETF demand. Leverage rising alongside spot demand may amplify a healthy move.

Spot vs Derivatives Flows (what to watch):
Spot demand flip-flopped dramatically within just a few sessions last week, which makes it the signal to watch this week. If ETF buying continues as derivatives positioning rebuilds, the recovery will have stronger support. If spot flows fade and leverage becomes the primary driver again, volatility risk will rise.

Cross-asset correlations (what it tells you):

The Nasdaq gained 0.7%, while the Dow fell 1.7% and the Russell 2000 declined 1.5%. While those are all declines, the relative gap between those indices suggests investors are still willing to own large-cap technology and growth companies despite weakness in more cyclical and inflation-sensitive sectors.

Meanwhile, the 10-year Treasury yield tested the 5% mark, increasing the competition stocks and crypto face from government debt offering more attractive yields.

The Nasdaq gained 0.7%, Bitcoin recovered from its selloff, and ETF demand returned on Thursday and Friday. But the Dow fell 1.7%, small caps lost 1.5%, Treasury yields remained near 5%, oil is trading above $100, and the Fed just raised interest rates.

Our assessment this week is:

Crypto: Neutral to constructive, but increasingly dependent on spot demand and regulatory developments.

Global macro: Selective, with high interest rates and energy prices limiting broad risk-taking.

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This information is for entertainment purposes only. It should not be considered financial advice, nor should it be used to make investment decisions. Cryptocurrencies are high risk and you should consult a financial professional before making any financial decisions. Make sure you do your own research.