Welcome to The Market Runup! Every week, we’re diving into what happened in the crypto market onchain and off-chain, as well macro developments — so you can get smarter on your Sundays and prepare for the week ahead.

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The Federal Reserve held interest rates steady this week, but the markets continued adjusting to the reality that rate cuts may not come as quickly as investors had hoped. Fed officials maintained a cautious tone when discussing inflation, while rising oil prices and the continuing war in Iran renewed pressure on inflation expectations and treasury yields.

For crypto investors, this environment has set up a difficult balancing act: liquidity conditions have improved meaningfully compared to late 2025, but financial conditions remain restrictive enough to keep institutions selective. As a result, crypto prices continue to track headlines as well as macro data and central bank expectations in the short-term.

Despite ongoing geopolitical uncertainty and elevated rates, U.S. equities continued showing resilience this week, led once again by strong results from large-cap technology companies, their positive commentary on AI, and increasing capex commitments. Investors appear increasingly willing to rotate back into riskier assets as major tech companies continue reinforcing the long-term benefits of AI tooling for coding, staff efficiency and employee costs.

That resilience has trickled down to crypto markets, with Bitcoin and Ethereum continuing to trade in line with the Nasdaq. The trend reinforces the idea that crypto remains tied to broader market sentiment, rather than trading on crypto-native fundamentals alone.

At the same time, the divergence within remains notable: Investors continue to favor higher-quality, institutional-facing digital assets, and disregard speculative altcoins, unlike in previous cycles.

Bitcoin pushed back toward the $80,000 mark this week as spot ETF inflows accelerated again, helping stabilize market sentiment after several weeks of choppy positioning.

While flows were mixed through the week, the broader trend pointed to continued institutional interest rather than speculative momentum. Bitcoin’s price also reflected a market that still feels cautious underneath the surface: investors are deploying capital, but primarily into assets viewed as macro proxies or institutional quality.

This dynamic reinforces one of the biggest structural shifts of this cycle: Bitcoin is increasingly trading as a global macro asset tied to liquidity conditions, ETF flows, and institutional portfolio positioning.

Tokenization and blockchain-based financial infrastructure continued their streak as strong themes this week. Major institutions continued expanding their involvement in tokenized treasuries, settlement systems, and onchain financial rails, as traditional finance firms moved beyond experimentation into active deployment.

Institutions appear increasingly interested in using blockchain technology as financial infrastructure — particularly for moving collateral, settlements, and programmable financial products.

The Federal Reserve held rates unchanged this week, and officials continued their conservative stance as rising oil prices and persistent inflation concerns complicate the path toward rate cuts. Treasury yields moved higher during the week as markets repriced “higher-for-longer” expectations following worries that the Iran War would continue on, and inflation would continue rising thanks to high energy prices.

Meanwhile, regulatory momentum around the Digital Asset Market Clarity Act boosted sentiment across crypto markets and crypto-related equities. The White House publicly mentioned a July 4 timeline for advancing the legislation, while ongoing debates around stablecoin regulation, custody rules, and token classification reinforced how important regulatory clarity has become for institutions entering digital assets.

Episode 12: Aryan Sheikhalian, head of research at CMT Digital

This week on The Market Runup, I sat down with Aryan Sheikhalian, head of research at CMT Digital, to unpack one of the biggest questions in markets right now: Are crypto markets actually entering a new liquidity-driven cycle, or are we still trapped in a cautious macro regime?

The conversation dove into how institutions are positioning, why ETF flows matter more than retail investors realize, and the importance of stablecoin supply as a predictor of future capital inflows.

Aryan also explained why crypto continues trading closely alongside macro assets during major economic events, how rate policy flows through crypto markets mechanically, and why infrastructure projects are attracting institutional attention over pure narrative trades.

One of the biggest themes of the episode centered around tokenization, and whether recent positive moves by firms like BlackRock and JPMorgan represent a structural shift, or if it’s still too early to materially impact capital flows.

The next cycle may not be driven by meme speculation or retail mania. It increasingly looks like the battle will be decided by who controls the rails for tokenized capital markets.

Spot vs Derivatives Flows (what to watch):

Spot ETF inflows remain one of the strongest structural supports for Bitcoin, but prices still appear touchy whenever macro volatility spikes.

This suggests crypto investors are still influenced by institutional positioning and macro sentiment, and are no longer speculating at the rates they used to.

Cross-asset correlations (what it tells you):

Notably, the relationship between crypto and equities is no longer directional. It has become highly synchronized intraday. Throughout the week, Bitcoin and the Nasdaq repeatedly moved in tandem following shifts in risk sentiment, particularly around rising oil prices, bond market volatility, and changing expectations about future rate cuts.

This dynamic reinforces how macro-sensitive crypto has become. Rather than trading primarily on crypto-native catalysts, Bitcoin is increasingly responding to the same variables driving broader financial markets: liquidity conditions, real yields, inflation expectations, and institutional portfolio positioning.

The shift is also visible beneath the surface. Realized volatility across both Bitcoin and large-cap technology equities remained relatively compressed for much of the week, and implied volatility increased around macro-sensitive events — particularly around inflation concerns and geopolitical headlines. This suggests investors are increasingly treating crypto as part of a broader, global risk framework rather than as a separate asset class.

Institutional investors continue to reinforce this trend. Spot Bitcoin ETFs, macro hedge funds, and multi-asset trading desks appear to be using BTC in their broader portfolio construction strategy. In practice, this means Bitcoin is being treated less like an isolated, speculative asset and more like a high-beta, macro instrument integrated into the broader risk asset complex.

The bigger takeaway is that crypto likely will not sustainably decouple from equities until global liquidity conditions improve materially, and crypto-native fundamentals begin driving flows. Until then, macro remains the dominant force behind market direction.

Risk appetite remained selective this week, with investors continuing to allocate into Bitcoin and institutional-facing exposure, and avoiding higher-beta altcoins.

With Bitcoin dominance near 60%, we can see that institutions still prefer BTC as the primary macro and liquidity trade inside crypto. Ethereum underperformed bitcoin for much of the week, and broader altcoin participation remained relatively muted.

This divergence was also visible in derivatives positioning. Funding rates across speculative sectors stayed relatively contained, suggesting investors are still cautious. At the same time, stablecoin market capitalization remained elevated, signaling that significant amounts of idle capital is yet to fully rotate into higher-risk assets.

In a nutshell, investors are becoming more comfortable deploying capital into crypto again, but are still favoring institutional-quality, liquid, and macro-sensitive assets over riskier altcoins.

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This information is for entertainment purposes only. It should not be considered financial advice, nor should it be used to make investment decisions. Cryptocurrencies are high risk and you should consult a financial professional before making any financial decisions. Make sure you do your own research.