Welcome to The Market Runup! Every week, we’re diving into what happened in the crypto market onchain and off-chain, as well macro developments — so you can get smarter on your Sundays and prepare for the week ahead.

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Macro markets turned defensive at several points this week as stronger-than-expected economic data and persistent inflation concerns caused investors to scale back expectations of a large interest rate cut later this year. 

Treasury yields moved higher throughout the week, particularly on the long end of the curve, as investors repriced the probability of rates staying elevated for longer than previously expected.

Bitcoin and Ethereum continued reacting to broader liquidity conditions, remaining highly sensitive to movements in yields, Fed expectations, and overall risk sentiment. 

This trend has lasted a few weeks now, and continues to reinforce crypto’s transition into a macro-driven asset class increasingly tied to global capital flows rather than isolated industry catalysts.

Tokenized financial infrastructure and onchain trading systems last week saw a renewal of interest, with Securitize, Jump Trading Group, and Jupiter Exchange all unveiling initiatives to enable the trading of tokenized equities on Solana..

At the same time, decentralized exchange market share continued climbing relative to centralized platforms, reinforcing a broader structural shift: crypto exchanges are increasingly evolving from speculative trading venues into real market infrastructure.

U.S. equities remained resilient this week despite rising yields, as investors continue to look to growth signals from large-cap technology and AI-related companies.

Markets continued responding positively to aggressive AI investment announcements and deals from major technology firms. Investors are increasingly starting to view AI spending as a long-term capital cycle likely to reshape productivity, cloud computing, and enterprise software usage over the coming decade.

That trend continued affecting crypto markets as well, particularly across infrastructure-focused sectors tied to scalability, trading systems, and blockchain-based financial rails,  with protocols like Uniswap, PancakeSwap, Hyperliquid, Aerodrome, and Jupiter. DefiLlama data also shows that decentralized perpetual exchanges have maintained a meaningful share of global derivatives volume, with Hyperliquid alone processing hundreds of billions in monthly volume and accounting for roughly 70% of the on-chain perpetuals market earlier this year

The weakening U.S. dollar helped improve broader risk sentiment across global markets. The Dollar Index (DXY) drifted lower during parts of the week as investors adjusted expectations around future Federal Reserve policy and global capital flows, creating a more supportive backdrop for risky assets like crypto.

Historically, periods of dollar weakness and improving global liquidity conditions have benefited Bitcoin and other digital assets, particularly when investors begin rotating out of defensive positions and look to higher-growth sectors. A clear example was the 2020–2021 cycle, when aggressive monetary stimulus and a weakening U.S. dollar helped drive Bitcoin from under $10,000 to nearly $69,000 as global liquidity conditions improved and investors rotated back into higher-growth risk assets.

While financial conditions remain relatively tight overall, the recent stabilization of liquidity expectations has helped support Bitcoin’s resilience and improve sentiment for institutional crypto investors.

Multiple countries, including the U.S, Singapore, UAE, and El Salvasdor, continued advancing conversations around strategic Bitcoin reserves, stablecoin frameworks, and tokenized financial systems this week. These conversations come as governments increasingly view digital assets as a lever for improving economic competitiveness and financial infrastructure rather than speculative assets.

This shift matters because it changes the long-term perception of crypto globally. Previously treated as an alternative asset class, Bitcoin and blockchain networks are increasingly being evaluated as technologies for facilitating payments, investments and trading, reserve diversification, and financial sovereignty.

Episode 13: Xiao-Xiao Zhu, President of Jupiter Exchange

This week on The Market Runup, I sat down with Xiao-Xiao Zhu, President of Jupiter Exchange, to unpack one of the biggest questions in markets right now: Are we finally seeing blockchain-based products transform into real onchain financial infrastructure?

Zhu talked about why DEXs are gaining market share compared to centralized exchanges, what’s actually driving institutions toward onchain finance infrastructure, and Jupiter’s growth as a liquidity and trading layer inside Solana.

Zhu also explained how traditional institutions are evaluating public blockchain infrastructure behind closed doors, and why tokenized equities could spark a turning point for crypto adoption.

One of the biggest themes of the conversation was the future relationship between TradFi and DeFi, and whether the next financial system will see the two philosophies competing or combining to become a hybrid system.

The percentages and metrics are based on a 7-day timeframe, unless noted otherwise.

The Market Runup’s Take:

Crypto markets are evolving from purely speculative trading environments into financial infrastructure. Much of the institutional focus in this cycle is on how blockchain technology can improve the movement, settlement, custody, and trading of financial assets globally.

Tokenization, onchain settlement systems, and decentralized liquidity networks are all part of a larger conversation around implementing programmable and interoperable financial markets. If the implementation works out, we could see equities, treasuries, funds, and credit products  eventually moving across blockchain-based systems.

Spot vs Derivatives Flows (what to watch): Spot demand continued leading the market this week. Bitcoin ETF inflows remained positive, and investors stayed disciplined with leverage in derivatives markets. 

Open interest increased modestly when Bitcoin rose back above the $80K mark, though funding rates across major perpetual futures exchanges remain muted.

Cross-asset correlations (what it tells you): Crypto continued behaving as part of the broader global risk asset complex this week, with Bitcoin closely tracking moves in equities, Treasury yields, and broader macro sentiment throughout the week.

The strongest relationship remained between Bitcoin and large-cap technology equities. As Treasury yields pushed higher earlier in the week, both Bitcoin and equity markets fell before stabilizing as yields moderated and broader risk sentiment improved. What’s important is that these correlations are becoming increasingly institutional in nature. 

This trend also reflects the growing role of institutional participants inside crypto markets. Spot Bitcoin ETFs, macro hedge funds, and multi-asset allocators increasingly appear to be treating BTC as part of their broader macro portfolios rather than as a standalone, speculative asset. 

The larger takeaway is that crypto will continue to trade alongside equities until global liquidity conditions improve materially, or blockchain-based financial activity begins generating enough independent economic demand to drive flows.

Risk appetite remained selective this week, as investors continue to buy Bitcoin and gain institutional-facing exposure, avoiding higher-beta altcoins.

Bitcoin has retained its dominance near 60%, indicating that institutions still prefer BTC as the primary macro and liquidity trade in crypto markets. Ethereum underperformed bitcoin for much of the week, and interest in altcoins remained relatively muted.

This divergence was also visible in derivatives positioning, as well as the preference for parking capital in stablecoins. 

In a nutshell, investors are becoming more comfortable deploying capital into crypto again, but are still favoring institutional-quality, liquid, and macro-sensitive assets over riskier altcoins.

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This information is for entertainment purposes only. It should not be considered financial advice, nor should it be used to make investment decisions. Cryptocurrencies are high risk and you should consult a financial professional before making any financial decisions. Make sure you do your own research.