Welcome to The Market Runup! Every week, we’re diving into what happened in the crypto market onchain and off-chain, as well macro developments — so you can get smarter on your Sundays and prepare for the week ahead.

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Global markets continued reacting to news of the Iran War, and the resulting impact on shipping through the Strait of Hormuz. 

Brent crude briefly moved above $110 while WTI crossed $108 earlier in the week, before coming down on hopeful news of the U.S. reaching an agreement with Iran. 

Meanwhile, U.S. Treasury yields continued climbing, with the 10-year yield pushing back above 4.5% as investors reassessed inflation expectations and the likelihood of interest rates staying higher for longer.

Markets reacted aggressively to rising bond yields, elevated energy prices, and concerns that inflation could remain sticky enough to push any interest rate cuts further into 2026.

While macro pressures continued weighing on sentiment earlier in the week, major equity indices including the S&P 500, Nasdaq, FTSE, and several Asian markets recovered into Friday as investors continued favoring large-cap technology, AI-driven growth, and higher-quality assets despite ongoing geopolitical uncertainty.

Bitcoin fell below the $80,000 mark this week, briefly touching a two-week low of $76,700 as volatility accelerated across both the equity and crypto markets. 

More than $661 million in crypto liquidations were triggered within 24 hours during the selloff on May19, reinforcing how sensitive digital assets remain to macro shifts in liquidity conditions.

Spot Bitcoin ETF flows remained mixed throughout the week, with periods of significant outflows offsetting earlier demand tied to Bitcoin’s move back above $80,000. 

Several reports including CME Bitcoin Futures Interest and Farside Bitcoin ETF Data Sheet, showed institutional allocators reducing risk exposure, while maintaining longer-term positioning through spot trades.

This divergence continues to define the current market: institutions remain engaged with Bitcoin, treating it as a macro asset, but prefer to be tactical and highly sensitive to indicators around interest rates, inflation, and liquidity conditions.

U.S. equities were volatile throughout the week, as strong results by tech companies touting promising AI indicators clashed with rising inflation and geopolitical risk. 

Despite persistent concerns around oil prices, Treasury yields, and Federal Reserve policy, global equities remained resilient throughout the week. The S&P 500, Nasdaq, FTSE, LSE-linked equities, and several major Asian indices all finished higher as investors continued rotating into large-cap technology, AI-driven growth, and higher-quality assets despite ongoing macro uncertainty.

This continues to reinforce a broader theme across U.S. markets: AI and productivity optimism are still supporting equities structurally, but macro conditions are increasingly limiting investor willingness to expand exposure to risky assets.

The recent energy shock has complicated the Federal Reserve’s path forward. Rising oil prices are reintroducing inflation concerns at a time when markets had already begun positioning for eventual monetary easing later this year. As a result, investors are questioning whether the Fed can realistically cut rates as quickly as they had previously expected.

For crypto, this matters because Bitcoin and other digital assets continue trading heavily in line with liquidity expectations, Treasury yields, and broader risk sentiment rather than crypto-native catalysts alone.

Historically, periods of dollar weakness and improving liquidity have tended to benefit Bitcoin and other digital assets, particularly when investors begin rotating out of defensive positions and into higher-growth risk assets. 

A clear example was in 2020 and 2021, when aggressive monetary stimulus and a weak U.S. dollar helped drive Bitcoin from under $10,000 to nearly $69,000 as investors looked to capitalize on higher-growth risk assets.

Episode 15: Amar Odedra, Head of Investments at The Algorand Foundation

This week on The Market Runup, I sat down with Amar Odedra, chief commercial officer and head of investments at the Algorand Foundation, to break down who survives in crypto when interest rates stay high, liquidity dries up, and investors become selective.

Odedra discussed how today’s market is completely different from the near-zero interest rate environment most crypto companies were built in, and why investors are now separating structurally strong projects from those that only worked when capital was cheap.

“The rise in rates have actually been a net positive for us as an industry, because when you're being offered up to 4-5% risk free rates that challenges projects that have been offering ridiculous returns on investments through complicated staking mechanisms. That gradual increase in rates have meant that onchain yield generating mechanisms products have to have something really substantial to be able to justify the additional counterparty risk, operational risk, and smart contract risks that you are taking onboard as well.”   

We also talked about what becomes the “flight to quality” trade in crypto. 

Odedra explained what institutions look for when evaluating crypto investments, and why fundamentals, defensibility, and clear utility matter more in this cycle.

Finally, Odedra broke down how tighter liquidity is reshaping venture capital, what kinds of founders still get funded in this environment, and what the industry could look like if higher interest rates and more disciplined capital allocation become the new normal.

The percentages and metrics are based on a 7-day timeframe, unless noted otherwise.

The Market Runup’s Take: Earlier in this cycle, tighter financial conditions typically triggered broad-based weakness across nearly all risk assets simultaneously. This week looked different. U.S. equities continued recovering, AI-linked technology stocks remained resilient, and Bitcoin stabilized despite rising yields and elevated oil prices.

At the same time, speculative areas of crypto failed to meaningfully participate in that recovery. Because it suggests investors are no longer treating “risk assets” as one uniform trade. Capital is becoming far more selective about where it’s willing to absorb macro pressure and where it isn’t.

In equities, investors continue rewarding companies tied to AI, productivity growth, and strong balance sheets. In crypto, flows appear increasingly concentrated around Bitcoin and areas tied to actual financial utility, while more speculative sectors continue struggling to regain sustained momentum.

Spot vs Derivatives Flows (what to watch):

Positioning remains relatively balanced despite the recent selloff. Funding rates stayed near neutral across major exchanges, and futures open interest declined modestly.

This suggests the recent crypto sell-off was driven more by investors de-risking macro movements, and doing spot trades rather than excessive speculative leverage unwinding across the system.

Cross-asset correlations (what it tells you):

Crypto continues trading closely alongside equities and broader macro-sensitive assets.

The correlation between Bitcoin, the Nasdaq, and the S&P 500 has become increasingly synchronized over the past several months, reinforcing how integrated digital assets have become within broader global market positioning.

Institutional capital continues concentrating in Bitcoin and large-cap assets rather than speculative sectors or smaller altcoins. Elevated stablecoin balances, a lack of leverage expansion, and continued sensitivity to macro headlines all suggest investors are remaining cautious despite ongoing long-term interest in crypto infrastructure.

Until there is greater clarity around inflation, interest rates, and geopolitical stability, investors are likely to continue favoring liquidity, transparency, and high-conviction positioning over riskier assets.

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This information is for entertainment purposes only. It should not be considered financial advice, nor should it be used to make investment decisions. Cryptocurrencies are high risk and you should consult a financial professional before making any financial decisions. Make sure you do your own research.