Welcome to The Market Runup! Every week, we’re diving into what happened in the crypto market onchain and off-chain, as well macro developments — so you can get smarter on your Mondays and prepare for the week ahead.

Wall Street experienced another sharp shift in sentiment Thursday as concerns about AI infrastructure spending pushed the Nasdaq down 2.6% and the S&P 500 down 1.2%. Meanwhile, the 10-year Treasury yield dropped below 5% as investors moved into government bonds. Despite the technology selloff, the Dow and Russell 2000 held relatively steady, suggesting investors are rotating capital rather than abandoning equities altogether.

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The Future of Onchain Liquidity: Institutional Markets, Tokenization & Capital Efficiency with Max McKendry

For our latest episode, I sat down with Max McKendry, Executive Director at Bolt Liquidity, to discuss the current state of financial markets, the role of institutional liquidity in crypto, and how decentralized trading infrastructure is evolving to support more sophisticated financial products.

Our conversation began with the macroeconomic environment, how higher borrowing costs, changing Federal Reserve expectations, and growing scrutiny of AI-related spending are influencing how institutions allocate capital between equities, bonds, commodities, and cryptocurrencies.

We also explored whether bitcoin's growing presence in institutional portfolios has fundamentally changed how it trades relative to traditional markets, or whether global liquidity remains the primary driver of its price.

Perpetual Motion covers the latest in the booming perpetual futures market. This section is brought to you by Synthetix, the leading decentralized perpetual futures protocol on Ethereum Mainnet.

Bitcoin derivatives reflected renewed volatility Thursday as the cryptocurrency declined toward $81,300 alongside the technology sector.

CoinGlass reported approximately $54.17 billion in bitcoin futures open interest and $68.86 billion in 24-hour futures volume in its latest available snapshot. Meanwhile, bitcoin perpetual funding averaged approximately +9% annualized across seven tracked exchanges on October 22, suggesting traders were still paying to maintain long exposure despite weakening prices.

The combination of substantial open interest, positive funding, and declining prices creates a potential vulnerability. If bitcoin continues falling while leveraged longs remain exposed, forced liquidations could accelerate selling pressure.

Spot vs Derivatives Flows (what to watch):

Bitcoin futures open interest remains near $54.2 billion, with approximately $68.9 billion in daily futures volume. Positive annualized funding near 9% suggests traders still favor long exposure, even as prices weaken. 

This week, watch whether open interest contracts as bitcoin is around $80,000. A gradual reduction in leverage could support market stability, while elevated funding and persistent long positioning could increase liquidation risk if support breaks.

Cross-asset correlations (what it tells you):

Thursday's 2.6% Nasdaq decline and 1.2% S&P 500 pullback coincided with renewed pressure on bitcoin, reinforcing its sensitivity to technology-sector risk appetite. However, the Dow rose slightly at 0.1%, and the Russell 2000 also edged higher, suggesting investors are rotating away from expensive AI-related companies rather than exiting equities entirely.

The 10-year Treasury yield fell approximately 17 basis points to 4.97%, its first move below 5% in nearly a month. Ordinarily, lower yields could support bitcoin by reducing the relative attractiveness of fixed-income assets. But with investors buying Treasuries for safety while oil climbed above $113 per barrel, the decline in yields appears more defensive than liquidity-driven.

Thursday's market action suggests investors are becoming increasingly selective. AI infrastructure spending is facing greater scrutiny, Treasury demand is rising, and higher oil prices are complicating the inflation outlook. 

With that in mind, our assessment for this week is:

Crypto: Renewed bitcoin spot ETF inflows are encouraging, but Thursday's reversal and elevated derivatives positioning suggest volatility could persist. 

Global macro: It feels selective and defensive as falling Treasury yields provide some relief, but rising energy prices, AI valuation concerns, and geopolitical uncertainty continue challenging broader risk appetite.

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This information is for entertainment purposes only. It should not be considered financial advice, nor should it be used to make investment decisions. Cryptocurrencies are high risk and you should consult a financial professional before making any financial decisions. Make sure you do your own research.