Welcome to The Market Runup! Every week, we’re diving into what happened in the crypto market onchain and off-chain, as well macro developments — so you can get smarter on your Mondays and prepare for the week ahead.

Last week, Wall Street continued pushing higher despite rising borrowing costs and geopolitical uncertainty. The S&P 500 gained 1.2%, the Nasdaq advanced 0.6%, and the Dow climbed 0.9% while bitcoin struggled to maintain momentum as investors pulled capital from spot ETFs in favor of investing in safer assets.

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The ETF Revolution: How Wall Street Is Changing the Way We Invest with Mike Schiemer

Last week, I sat down with Mike Schiemer, CMO of Dividend Vision and an ETF marketing specialist, to discuss the state of the economy, the evolution of exchange-traded funds, and how investors are adapting to a financial system where access to sophisticated strategies becomes commonplace.

The macroeconomic backdrop remains complicated. The S&P 500 neared record levels last week even as 10-year Treasury bond yields climbed to about 5.24%, keeping borrowing costs elevated for both businesses and consumers. Meanwhile, higher energy prices and persistent inflation concerns continue to complicate expectations of the Federal Reserve's next policy decision.

Our conversation explored how higher interest rates are changing institutions’ capital allocation strategies; why dividend and options-income ETFs are attracting attention; and whether investors are focusing too much on technology companies as AI hype drives the market.

The percentages and metrics are based on a 7-day timeframe, unless noted otherwise.

Perpetual Motion covers the latest in the booming perpetual futures market. This section is brought to you by Synthetix, the leading decentralized perpetual futures protocol of Ethereum Mainnet.

Bitcoin derivatives reflected the same caution you could infer from spot ETF flows last week. As bitcoin declined from above $86,000 early in the week toward the $83,000 range, it appears traders started factoring in pressure from rising Treasury yields, the stronger dollar and geopolitical uncertainty.

CoinGlass reported approximately $54.5 billion in bitcoin futures open interest in its October 7 snapshot, when the currency was trading near $83,300. Open interest measures the outstanding value of futures positions across tracked exchanges.

The combination of falling prices, ETF withdrawals and continued derivatives exposure is worth watching. Open interest can remain elevated despite falling prices, which suggests that traders are maintaining their positions.

Spot vs Derivatives Flows (what to watch): Bitcoin ETF flows went negative last week, with about $679 million leaving U.S. spot funds after the previous week's modest inflows. Meanwhile, derivatives positioning remained substantial despite bitcoin's falling price.

Cross-asset correlations (what it tells you): Equities continued outperforming crypto last week, with the S&P 500 gaining 1.2%, the Nasdaq rising 0.6%, the Dow up 0.9%, and the Russell 2000 declining 0.9%. That divergence suggests investors are still favoring larger, established companies as they seek to diminish risk exposure.

The bond market remains a concern. The 10-year Treasury yields were near 5.24% on Friday, adding pressure on valuations and making profitable assets look more attractive. At the same time, technology companies’ performance continues supporting equity stocks despite rising inflation and interest rates.

The continued strength of U.S. equities suggests investors are still willing to take risk, but are favoring technology firms and companies that seem poised to post strong earnings. However, bitcoin ETF outflows, struggling small-cap stocks, and high borrowing costs are forcing investors to be more selective.

With that in mind, our assessment for this week is:

Crypto: Cautious. ETF outflows and derivatives exposure warrant attention, particularly if Bitcoin struggles to recover above recent trading levels.

Global macro: Constructive, but unsteady. Equities look encouraging, although Treasury yields, energy prices and inflation could challenge their rally.

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This information is for entertainment purposes only. It should not be considered financial advice, nor should it be used to make investment decisions. Cryptocurrencies are high risk and you should consult a financial professional before making any financial decisions. Make sure you do your own research.