Welcome to the September edition of our market-focused newsletter, brought to you by StrataMedia and Forgd.

Each month, we’ll track the state of the digital asset market through the activity that matters most: new token launches, listings, post-launch performance, liquidity, trading activity and emerging areas of market participation. For more details, check out Forgd’s Market Maker Leaderboard on Token Relations here.

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Key Takeaways: The market in September built on the improvement in August. More projects were brought to market, several of which came with broader exchange support, with more exchanges listing tokens. OKX returned to day-one spot listings, though Binance Spot was absent from the primary launches we identified. The market is becoming more receptive, however, and large launches that could attract broader retail participation remain the next test.

August was when the market for new altcoins started to reopen. Projects were launching again, though the reception was uneven. Low starting valuations did not prevent sharp drawdowns, though, and much of the early price discovery was concentrated with Binance Alpha and a small group of exchanges.

We saw that recovery build on August’s momentum last month, with the improvement most evident in exchange participation: several projects secured support across major venues from the outset.

In August, we identified the return of major spot exchanges to day-one listings as an indicator worth watching. In September, OKX’s active participation in launches delivered progress on that front, giving the market a strong base for optimism.

The snapshot below covers six token launches in September launches and their launch-day venues, with a focus on projects with substantive products, protocols or infrastructure. We cover the same exchanges we did in our August review, with the addition of OKX. Binance Alpha is included as a distinct launch channel, and we’re excluding perpetual contracts and subsequent secondary listings.

This is not an exhaustive list of September token generation events. Bitget and venues outside this review, including MEXC, were actively involved in listing the long tail of memecoins and other speculative tokens that have gained traction lately.

Performance was uneven, particularly for Cluster Protocol, which launched at a $150 million initial FDV, substantially above the rest of the cohort, only to decline 88.8% from its first-day high. The decline from the opening valuation hints that demand so far isn’t  high enough to support larger launches at high valuations. 

Of course, one project’s performance can’t dictate a market-wide trend, but $CP’s record so far raises a relevant question for larger projects: Will renewed enthusiasm translate into enough sustained buy-side demand to support expected valuations?

Here are a few exchange patterns worth noting:

This episode is part of the Talking Tokens podcast by StrataMedia, where we go beyond the headlines to uncover what’s actually happening across crypto, digital assets, and the onchain economy. Check out the podcast on Spotify, Apple Podcasts and YouTube.

In this episode of Talking Tokens, we sat down with Shane Molidor, founder and CEO of Forgd, and Ryan Celaj, head of research at DefiLlama, to discuss how the Market Maker Leaderboard brings accountability to a historically opaque part of crypto, why secondary-market performance matters as much as disclosures, and how their new Universal Token Ratings aim to become a Moody's for crypto.

The return of OKX as a listing venue was the clearest improvement over what we observed in August, when it participated in just one secondary spot listing and no day-one primary listings. Exchange participation affects where new buyers can access a token and how a project organizes its initial liquidity footprint, so a token supported by several major venues has more opportunities to reach different groups for more robust price discovery. 

In that light, September’s listing activity was encouraging for founders who have been waiting for a more receptive environment. Cluster Protocol, Doppler Finance and Concrete each secured OKX support at launch. Concrete also had Coinbase and Kraken, alongside several Eastern-based exchanges. The market is showing signs that a broader launch could be executed again.

But the implications for liquidity are still bumpy. More listings give investors additional opportunities, but they also spread market making requirements across more order books. And venue count alone isn’t enough to tell us if those markets have sufficient depth, if spreads are competitive, or if buyers will continue to participate once the token moves to secondary markets.

August was a useful reminder of how the shine can fade. Five of the six assets that launched in August had fallen more than 50% from their first-day peaks by September 4, despite initial fully diluted valuations of $20 million or less. September’s wider listing footprint isn’t enough to establish that such performance hurdles aren’t an issue any more.

A more sustainable recovery will depend partly on how projects approach valuations. While a more receptive listing environment gives teams greater flexibility, they still need to leave room for secondary-market buyers. In August, we saw that a modest starting valuation can still result in aggressive opening prices, followed by a difficult period for investors who bought into the project near its peak valuation.

In our August edition, we discussed how speculative activity can improve the backdrop for new launches. That remained relevant in September, though memecoins should continue to be considered separate from the core altcoin cohort. 

The constructive case is straightforward. When traders are willing to consider new assets, projects have a better environment in which to introduce their tokens. A market with more active participants can support more price discovery and give founders more reasons to proceed with launches they might have shelved.

We’ll have to see if that willingness can persist beyond short launch windows. Sustained activity across multiple venues would be more meaningful than a single opening-day move or a temporary increase in reported volume. September’s cohort gives us another group of launches using which we can assess whether speculative appetite is translating into durable demand.

We’re now watching larger projects that could make the recovery more widely felt: Ink Chain, MetaMask, OpenSea and Variational have the ability to draw attention beyond the current group of new listings. But it remains to be seen if that attention can translate into sustained token demand and participation across major venues.

The anticipation around these projects can be part of the opportunity. A widely followed launch can give retail investors a reason to return, and existing traders gain a new asset around which they can organize. The eventual impact, though, will depend on the terms of distribution, what role the token plays, and its valuation.

The signals we are watching most closely are:

For founders, September’s favorable climate may suggest that launch is becoming an increasingly realistic option, with projects securing several venues from the outset, and exchanges returning to market. 

But investors still have several familiar questions unanswered. Exchange access is not an indicator of how accurately a token is valued, and a successful first day can’t tell you if that initial demand will persist. 

The altcoin market is gaining momentum, however, and the large projects coming up will prove if investors still have appetite for altcoins. 

This product was built by StrataMedia and Forgd.

This information is for entertainment purposes only. It should not be considered financial advice, nor should it be used to make investment decisions. Cryptocurrencies are high risk and you should consult a financial professional before making any financial decisions. Make sure you do your own research.

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