Welcome to The Market Runup! Every week, we’re diving into what happened in the crypto market onchain and off-chain, as well macro developments — so you can get smarter on your Sundays and prepare for the week ahead.

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SpaceX’s IPO, the largest listing in U.S. history, created a new wave of billionaires and also made the company’s majority owner, Elon Musk, a trillionaire — also a first. While the event dominated headlines around the world, its impact quickly spilled into crypto markets as traders rushed to gain exposure to the Space-social-data-center-AI business through alternative venues.

On Hyperliquid, SpaceX-linked perpetual contracts (SPCX) saw hundreds of millions of dollars  worth of trading activity, with open interest exceeding $240 million, and daily volume surpassing $220 million at various points during the week. Remarkably, this became one of the platform's most actively traded assets despite offering significantly lower leverage than many major crypto markets.

Last week also saw a notable divergence between traditional markets and digital assets. As Bitcoin suffered its worst week since July 2024, U.S. equities largely recovered from early-week weakness. 

The S&P 500 finished the week within a few percentage points of its all-time high, while the Nasdaq continued to be supported by strength in large-cap technology stocks.

One of the more overlooked developments this week was Tether surpassing Solana to become the third-largest blockchain by market capitalization. The shift reflects a broader change in investor behavior during periods of uncertainty. Rather than rotating aggressively into higher-risk assets, capital has increasingly favored liquidity, flexibility and stability. Whether temporary or structural, the rise of stablecoins relative to speculative assets is becoming a trend worth watching.

Another theme that emerged last week is how closely crypto has become tied to broader financial markets. A few years ago, crypto often traded on its own narratives. Today, institutional flows, portfolio allocation decisions, and shifts in risk sentiment can have a significant impact on digital asset prices. 

The growing influence of ETFs, public market performance, and macroeconomic expectations suggests that crypto is increasingly behaving as part of the global financial system rather than operating alongside it.

The contrast between equities and crypto highlights a reality that crypto bulls haven't had to confront for much of the past two years: investors have options.

Crypto has always had to compete for mindshare. When investors can earn attractive returns from equities, private markets or high-profile growth opportunities, crypto may appear risky or disorganized. This week's divergence between Bitcoin and traditional markets suggests that digital assets are benefiting less from their positioning as an alternative asset class. 

Episode 18: Brian Esposito, Capital Markets and Mixed Signals

This week on The Market Runup, I sat down with Brian J. Esposito, CEO of Diamond Lake Minerals, to talk about why markets are sending mixed signals across asset classes. We also touched on whether Bitcoin should be viewed as a monetary asset or a technology asset, and what ultimately drives institutional allocation decisions.

Esposito shared his perspective on tokenization, stablecoins, capital formation, and why he believes public markets may look dramatically different over the next decade.

The discussion also explored sovereign debt, Treasury yields, and the indicators Esposito is watching closely as investors search for signs that the next global liquidity cycle may be approaching.

The percentages and metrics are based on a 7-day timeframe, unless noted otherwise.

For years, one of crypto's core promises was giving investors access to opportunities traditionally limited to venture capital firms, institutions, and private market insiders. The extraordinary demand surrounding SpaceX's IPO suggests investors are increasingly looking for ways to access high-growth private companies before they go public.

This reinforces one of the major themes from this week's conversation with Brian Esposito: the future of capital markets may look very different than the one investors operate in today. As tokenization, digital securities, and alternative trading venues continue to evolve, the distinction between public markets, private markets, and crypto markets may become difficult to define.

Spot vs Derivatives Flows (what to watch):

Despite Bitcoin plummeting, there was no meaningful wave of dip-buying from either ETF investors or spot market participants. Derivatives liquidations accelerated as prices moved lower in the absence of investors stepping in to absorb supply.

Going forward, investors should watch whether ETF flows stabilize and whether spot demand begins returning. The next phase of the market may be determined less by liquidations and more by whether long-term buyers regain conviction.

Cross-asset correlations (what it tells you):

U.S. equities recovered most of their losses and finished the week higher, and Bitcoin continued falling and significantly underperformed every major macro risk asset. This highlights the growing divergence between crypto sentiment and broader financial markets

Capital continued flowing into other areas of the market. The Nasdaq and S&P 500 finished the week higher, gold remained resilient, and investor demand for SpaceX demonstrated that enthusiasm for growth assets is still very much alive.

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This information is for entertainment purposes only. It should not be considered financial advice, nor should it be used to make investment decisions. Cryptocurrencies are high risk and you should consult a financial professional before making any financial decisions. Make sure you do your own research.