Welcome to The Market Runup! Every week, we’re diving into what happened in the crypto market onchain and off-chain, as well macro developments — so you can get smarter on your Mondays and prepare for the week ahead.

Bitcoin started the week below $63,000. By Friday, it had traded as high as roughly $79,500, putting the $80,000 milestone back on the board, and marking its highest level since May.

The crypto asset gained roughly 23% in five days. Billions of dollars flowed back into Bitcoin through U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs, short positions were squeezed as prices moved higher, and the rally broadened across the crypto market as capital rotated into Ethereum and other major altcoins.

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Benjamin Cowen, Founder and CEO of ITC: Is this the beginning of a new market cycle?

Last week, I sat down with Benjamin Cowen, founder and CEO of Into The Cryptoverse, to step back from discussing daily price action so we could go over the bigger question on everyone’s minds: Where are we in the market cycle?

Into The Cryptoverse provides macro-driven frameworks for crypto trading and investing that looks beyond individual tokens, to focus on liquidity, monetary policy, Bitcoin dominance, risk appetite and historical market cycles. 

Our conversation couldn't have happened at a better time. Bitcoin has spent months struggling to keep pace with equities, and investors were debating whether the traditional four-year crypto cycle still mattered.

We dove into the question of whether we're still operating in a late-cycle environment, and what would need to happen for a genuine risk-on cycle to emerge. Cowen explained why Bitcoin dominance continues to matter for altcoins, whether global liquidity remains an important variable for crypto, and what could invalidate his current market thesis.

Cowen also discussed where the bull market may be outside of crypto, whether AI has captured speculative capital, and what he believes investors should be watching in the months ahead.

And for the first time, Benjamin is taking Into The Cryptoverse offline, bringing his community together for the company's first conference later this year. We talked about why he decided now was the right moment for an event, which will also cover macro trends, liquidity, commodities and broader financial markets.

The percentages and metrics are based on a 7-day timeframe, unless noted otherwise.

Perpetual Motion covers the latest in the booming perpetual futures market. This section is brought to you by Synthetix, the leading decentralized perpetual futures protocol of Ethereum Mainnet.

Ahead of the breakout, Bitcoin futures open interest was hovering around $47.9 billion while spot activity remained comparatively weak. That imbalance left the market vulnerable to a large liquidation event if Bitcoin escaped its range.

That's exactly what happened. As Bitcoin surged, billions of dollars of bearish positions were forced closed, which caused the squeeze to become one of the primary accelerants behind the rally.

Now, it’ll be wise to watch whether open interest immediately races higher again. If Bitcoin holds above its breakout while leverage remains restrained, and spot buying strengthens, we can expect a healthier market structure to be formed over time.

If open interest rebuilds faster than spot demand, we'll be going back to a market dominated by leverage.

Spot vs Derivatives Flows (what to watch): This week's move is almost a textbook example of why this metric is important to track.

The inverse ratio of open interest to spot activity before the breakout indicated that a significant amount of capital was betting on Bitcoin's next move being driven by leverage rather than demand for the asset.

Once Bitcoin started trading higher, those positions added fuel to the fire.

More than $3 billion in crypto shorts were wiped out as the market surged, resulting in forced buying across Bitcoin, Ethereum and other major assets.

Still, there were constructive spot signals: U.S. Bitcoin ETFs recorded approximately $517 million in net inflows on Wednesday. That's the number we want to keep an eye on.

If ETF inflows and spot demand continue to rise after the liquidation cascade ends, the rally will prove much more convincing. If spot demand fades while futures open interest quickly rebuilds, leverage may simply be resetting for another volatile move.

Cross-asset correlations (what it tells you): Earlier in the week, equities pulled back from record highs as rising oil prices and long-term Treasury yields pressured riskier assets. Bitcoin initially remained subdued as well.

Then, after the Treasury announced its plan to expand long-duration bond buybacks, Bitcoin exploded.

Gold also surged as yields initially declined and concerns around government debt returned to the forefront. Equities received some relief, but Bitcoin reacted dramatically.

This suggests Bitcoin may currently be responding less to the equity market’s direction, and more to changes in liquidity, real yields, the US dollar and fiscal credibility.

While that doesn't make Bitcoin a traditional safe-haven asset, it does reinforce the idea that the cryptocurrency increasingly borders the intersection of risk assets, liquidity trades and alternative monetary assets.

There aren’t many debates about risk appetite for crypto after last week.

Bitcoin surged more than 20% over the week,  ETH gained nearly 30%, and capital moved into higher-beta assets. ETF inflows returned even as traders began moving farther on the crypto risk curve. 

But we shouldn't confuse improving crypto sentiment for an all-clear signal for the global economy. Long-term Treasury yields remain elevated, and inflation risks haven't disappeared. Energy markets remain sensitive given the Iran war continues,  and the fiscal pressures facing the U.S. government remain an important variable.

So our assessment has changed significantly from last week: 

Crypto: Risk is favorable

Global macro: Constructive, but fragile.

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This information is for entertainment purposes only. It should not be considered financial advice, nor should it be used to make investment decisions. Cryptocurrencies are high risk and you should consult a financial professional before making any financial decisions. Make sure you do your own research.