Welcome to The Market Runup! Every week, we’re diving into what happened in the crypto market onchain and off-chain, as well macro developments — so you can get smarter on your Sundays and prepare for the week ahead.

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CAP debut sees strong demand

One of the biggest crypto-specific stories this week came on July 1st, when CAP made its public market debut. The token recorded nearly $200 million in trading volume, and ended its first day of trading with a $325 million market cap.

The strong debut showed meaningful appetite for a protocol built around covered credit, secured yield, and financial guarantees, as investors increasingly focus on yield quality, capital efficiency, and real economic activity.

CAP’s business model sits at the intersection of private credit and onchain finance. Lenders can earn yield on USD loans, and underwriters are required to post collateral to back their credit decisions. If loans perform, underwriters earn a premium, but if borrowers default, their collateral is used as protection.

Solana's meme economy shows signs of life

The launch of the $ANSEM token reignited retail activity on Solana after months of slowing momentum. 

The token's explosive rise helped push daily token launches on Pump.fun (a Solana-based platform that lets anyone instantly create and trade meme coins) to their highest level in roughly 80 days, and token graduations and trading activity accelerated across the network.

Meme coins remain highly speculative, but periods of high retail participation have historically coincided with higher onchain activity, stronger trading volumes, and renewed attention across the broader Solana ecosystem. 

It’s not clear if the momentum will continue, but last week's activity suggests retail investors may finally be returning after spending much of the year on the sidelines.

Interest rate-hike fears ease, but bitcoin suffers anyway

Macro markets showed signs of positivity last week as weak employment data reduced expectations for another near-term interest rate hike, supporting risk sentiment. Still, investors remain selective, chasing opportunities in AI, tech, data center infrastructure, and equities, pulling away from bitcoin and its ilk.

Episode 21: DeFi Dave on CAP, private credit and sustainable yield

Last week, I sat down with DeFi Dave, head of growth at Cap, following the market debut of its CAP token.

Dave discussed whether markets have entered a credit-driven regime again, where liquidity is actually flowing, and what traditional finance understands about onchain credit that retail crypto investors are missing.

We also covered CAP’s launch, the demand behind its auction, why investors are focusing on sustainable yield, and how onchain credit could become one of crypto’s most important real-world use cases.

The percentages and metrics are based on a 7-day timeframe, unless noted otherwise.

To receive more consistent allocations in institutional and retail portfolios, the crypto industry will need to evolve beyond simple spot ownership and perpetual futures. 

The next phase of growth will likely be driven by better investment products, stronger risk management, and financial infrastructure that makes long-term participation easier.

Spot vs Derivatives Flows (what to watch):

Continued weakness in spot demand and ETF flows suggests investors are being more deliberate about crypto exposure.

Cross-asset correlations (what it tells you):

Technology stocks and equity funds attracted fresh capital, bonds remained attractive, and rate expectations following after weaker labor data. Meanwhile, crypto prices remained under pressure from slowing ETF flows, investor caution, and a lack of fresh catalysts.

That divergence shows that investors still have an appetite for risk, instead of crypto, they are prioritizing assets where the payoff is clearer. Right now, AI, credit and large-cap equities appear to be offering a more compelling story for many allocators.

Investors continued allocating capital toward areas with visible earnings growth, durable cash flows, and predictable returns: AI infrastructure, semiconductor manufacturers, hyperscale cloud providers, and private credit. 

Meanwhile, broad crypto exposure continued to lag. Even within digital assets, investors showed a preference for specific themes rather than the market as a whole, evidenced in the Solana meme coin surge.

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This information is for entertainment purposes only. It should not be considered financial advice, nor should it be used to make investment decisions. Cryptocurrencies are high risk and you should consult a financial professional before making any financial decisions. Make sure you do your own research.