Welcome to The Market Runup! Every week, we’re diving into what happened in the crypto market onchain and off-chain, as well macro developments — so you can get smarter on your Mondays and prepare for the week ahead.

Payrolls increased by 162,000 compared to the about 50,000 the market had expected for August, and unemployment held at 4.1%, which together raised expectations for another interest rate hike. Treasury yields moved higher in response, adding pressure on equities last Friday, though the S&P 500 and Nasdaq still finished the week slightly positive.

And that’s before we account for energy prices. Renewed U.S.–Iran tensions pushed Brent crude above $95 per barrel, adding another potential source of inflation just as markets are growing more concerned about interest rates staying higher for longer. 

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Brian Consolvo: Stablecoins Are About to Change the Financial System

Last week, I sat down with Brian Consolvo of KPMG to talk about how stablecoins are evolving from a crypto infrastructure story into a much larger tale of macroeconomics. 

The conversation explored whether dollar-denominated stablecoins could strengthen the U.S. dollar’s dominance; why a trillion-dollar stablecoin market could create an important new buyer of U.S. Treasuries; and what happens to traditional banks if people choose to move their deposits to programmable digital dollars.

Consolvo also spoke about tokenization, 24/7 financial markets, and the convergence of AI and programmable money. If AI agents one day are widely used for transacting, managing portfolios and purchasing services autonomously, stablecoins could play a big role in the financial infrastructure those systems use. 

The percentages and metrics are based on a 7-day timeframe, unless noted otherwise.

Perpetual Motion covers the latest in the booming perpetual futures market. This section is brought to you by Synthetix, the leading decentralized perpetual futures protocol of Ethereum Mainnet.

I think leverage is still one of the most important metrics to watch after Bitcoin's August breakout. Bitcoin futures open interest has declined from approximately $54.8 billion last weekend to around $53.2 billion today, a drop of roughly $1.6 billion, or 2.9%. That tells us some leveraged positioning has come out of the market, even as Bitcoin continues trading near $80K.

But that activity wasn’t relegated to derivatives alone. Spot Bitcoin ETFs generated approximately $986.7 million in net inflows, of which $730.8 million came on Thursday alone — the largest single day inflow since January. This shows there was genuine institutional spot demand driving at least part of Bitcoin's move above $80K.

If open interest begins rising again while ETF inflows remain strong, derivatives would be adding momentum to a rally supported by genuine spot demand. But if leverage rebuilds while ETF demand fades, we could be looking at a shakier climb ahead.

Spot vs Derivatives Flows (what to watch):

Bitcoin moved above $82K on Thursday, when U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded approximately $730.8 million in net inflows in the strongest session of the week. 

Across the full five trading days, ETFs attracted approximately $986.7 million despite losing $236.5 million on Tuesday.

The meaningful amounts of capital at play here are evidence of constructive positioning, and help the argument that Bitcoin's recent moves aren’t being manufactured by futures positioning and short liquidations. 

But it remains to be seen whether that demand will continue to sustain now that Bitcoin's pulled back toward $80K. If we see continued ETF inflows while the asset’s price stabilizes, one could argue that institutions are trying to accumulate instead of chasing momentum. If ETF demand weakens while futures leverage rebuilds, the balance would shift back toward a more fragile derivatives-driven market.

Cross-asset correlations (what it tells you):

The S&P 500 and Nasdaq managed small weekly gains, but both sold off on Friday after the stronger-than-expected jobs report pushed yields higher. 

Gold reacted even more aggressively, falling about 1.2% on Friday as the markets priced in the probability of another interest hike. Bitcoin also pulled back from Thursday's $82K high, but remained near $80K heading into the weekend.

Meanwhile, oil moved sharply higher because of renewed U.S.–Iran hostilities,  bringing energy back into the inflationary equation, an input that could keep both nominal and real yields elevated

Bitcoin briefly moved above $82K, U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs attracted nearly $1 billion and equities managed small weekly gains: All signs that investors haven't abandoned riskier assets. But the market’s reaction to the jobs report on Friday shows how sensitive markets remain to interest-rate expectations.

It’ll be a good idea to watch the combination of high yields and energy prices. With 10-year Treasury yield trading around the upper-4% range, higher interest rate expectations, and Brent crude returning to the mid-$90s range, markets now have considerably less room to absorb another inflation surprise.

Our assessment this week is:

Crypto: Risk is favorable, with institutional demand still providing support.

Global macro: Increasingly shaky as interest rates and energy prices may move higher.

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This information is for entertainment purposes only. It should not be considered financial advice, nor should it be used to make investment decisions. Cryptocurrencies are high risk and you should consult a financial professional before making any financial decisions. Make sure you do your own research.